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Stein: I'm sitting here with Dave Ray and Jennifer Denson, Associate Director's of FAIR, and Paul Egan, FAIR's Director of Government Relations. Dan Stein here, we're talking about the election that just happened yesterday, and what does it mean for immigration control -- immigration reform -- in the upcoming election? Paul, maybe you could give us a few highlights of the key races that might affect immigration issues.
Egan: Well, first and foremost, the chairman of the immigration subcommittee in the House, Congressman George Gekas, lost his re-election, which leaves that position vacant. Obviously, change in control of the Senate is going to mean that Sen. Ted Kennedy is no longer going to be chairman of the immigration subcommittee of that chamber. Someone else will have to be a new chairman, and most probably that will be Sen. Brownback of Kansas.
Denson: One thing I think we have to point out though, for all those supporters of immigration reform, Gekas had introduced a legal immigration reform bill, but immigration reform was not a big issue in the campaign. So I don't want people to think that he lost because of the immigration issue, because I don't think that's true at all.
Stein: He really had not run any kind of close or contested campaign for 20 years almost, and didn't have the experience in fund-raising -- capability -- media savvy to do that kind of campaign. The question then becomes who takes over the immigration subcommittee?
Denson: Well, that's going to be the interesting question that I think we won't know for quite some time. Sensenbrenner will of course still be in charge of the Judiciary Committee and will have the say in who is going to taken over -- but ...
Stein: Chairman Sensenbrenner from Wisconsin?
Denson: That's right. He, of course, was re-elected. But there's a number of people who could take over.
Egan: Chairman Sensenbrenner, obviously, is going to have a very important role to play in selecting the chairman. Seniority on the full committee would give, among the members of the subcommittee the best shot of becoming the chairman, either Congressman Chris Cannon of Utah or perhaps Elton Gallegly of California.
Stein: Chris Cannon has been the guy who has taken at the President's lead on negotiating guest workers and some kind of rolling amnesty program.
Denson: Also, in-state tuition in Utah -- don't forget -- that's been his national bill in the Congress.
Stein: So, for example, if Orrin Hatch takes -- as he will -- the Senate Judiciary Committee, and then Chris Cannon were to take control of the House immigration subcommittee, there would be a pretty potent duo from Utah working for the President probably against a lot of the important things that we're trying to accomplish.
Ray: There are some very scary things we could be facing in a very short period of time, either in the lame duck session coming up -- or in the next Congress -- with the two of them in charge of committees. You are talking about a basic amnesty the President Bush has been talking about for Mexicans -- or for all illegal aliens; and 245i mini-amnesty that could possibly come up in the lame duck session, and then the ongoing political calculations regarding the Haitian boat people and what should be done with them -- and whether those policies should be revamped (and there's pressure on the administration to do that).
Egan: There's no question that the result of this election is going to have a fairly significant impact on the lame duck session that's going to convene next Tuesday. And the change in control for next year means that the Democrats -- who control the Senate at this point -- are probably going to want to make this as short as possible (this lame duck session). They will probably try to dispose of as many appropriations bills as they can. It remains a question mark whether they will be able to reach an agreement on the Department of Homeland Security legislation. But you can pretty well gamble that this will be a very short session because the Republicans will be looking forward to an opportunity to craft their own bills next year, while the Democrats this year during the balance of this Congress will want to make the best deals they can get while they can.
Stein: Is there any cause for hope in the Senate elections? I think Saxbe Chambliss, who was a representative from Georgia, is now in the Senate. He's been a good supporter.
Denson: Yes, he defeated Cleeland, and he has been supportive of immigration reforms -- particularly on illegal immigration issues and enforcement security issues...
Egan: And he is somebody who knows something about the issue. He, after all, is the House Intelligence Subcommittee on Terrorism chairman. So he brings something to the table in the Senate that I think we've lacked for some time.
Ray: It was interesting watching the results coming in from Georgia. It was being played that the trump card that Chambliss had over Cleeland was that he was able to portray Cleeland and the Democrats as holding up "homeland security." I wonder with his election and with the Homeland Security Bill being something that the American public obviously wants, whether or not that's going to be something of immediate importance in the lame duck session.
Denson: I think for the Republicans that would certainly be of importance. Like Paul was saying, I think the Democrats are going to try -- they don't have much bargaining power right now -- they still have a little right now as far as appropriations bills -- so they are going to try and cut the best deals they can. So the Republicans may be forced to try to hold off on some of these things until next year when they have a stronger hold.
Egan: That's right, an add to that the uncertainty of who will control the Senate even in the lame duck session. Former Congressman Jim Talent, who won in Missouri, can take a seat immediately as soon as he is certified. Similarly, in Minnesota you have a new Republican Senator who has been elected -- he could take his seat immediately as well. In this case, the Republicans take control and the Democrats are certainly going to want to salvage as much as they can from this lame duck.
Denson: I think we are going to have to keep our eyes open to what's happening in the Senate in the next couple days to see how this all falls out for next week.
Stein: There's no evidence, though, that when Mr. Gephardt promised some kind of mass amnesty in Miami some weeks back that that really helped the Democrats. Security definitely sells, at least in this election. It doesn't seem to me like there's a lot of evidence that promising a lot of Green Cards for votes was paying off for the Democrats.
Ray: It might actually have helped launch a few boats from Haiti that resulted in the boat-lift situation we had a couple weeks ago. So perhaps we'll see some backpedaling on the amnesty issue -- it never has been very popular among some Republicans.
Egan: I wouldn't foreclose the possibility of consideration of amnesty next year at all. Don't forget, the President has still never done anything to repudiate his support for an amnesty last year, and we still have a very unknown quantity in terms of who is going to chair the two immigration subcommittees.
Stein: So, who's the person who the immigration reform movement should be advocating for chairman of the subcommittee?
Egan: I think from our perspective, right now, the best candidate for immigration reform would be Elton Gallegly of California.
Denson: Of course it's sure would be nice if Lamar Smith would come back to chair the immigration subcommittees. The tenure of six-year limitation is gone.
Stein: He's got a dandy subcommittee on terrorism and crime.
Denson: He probably won't.
Stein: But it would be nice for people to try to convince them to come back. And then there's also Bob Goodlatte, who really knows immigration issues. He would be a good chairman too. So there are some people out there. Darrell Issa has been working feverishly to close the checkpoints on I-5 in California, which we don't think is a good idea. With but he may be interested in taking the subcommittee for as well.
Denson: And in the Senate, if Brownback for some reason decided he didn't want the committee -- because he's next in line for it -- I would like to see Senator Grassley from Iowa take over the committee. He would be a fine chairman.
Stein: Definitely some possibilities for some blue skies. Or at least some opportunities or at least some positive change. It will definitely be a different environment, and we'll keep talking about this in the coming days. Anything else anyone wants to add?
Egan: I think we've got our work cut out for us next year. The sooner we get started, the more successful we can expect to become. I think it's a bit early to be celebrating the change in control of the Senate at this point, because there's too much that remains unknown.
Ray: I just wanted to add -- something for people to watch -- just a couple of weeks ago Vicente Fox was back to meeting with President Bush, urging another type of amnesty program -- or special dispensation for Mexicans living in the United States -- and with the Bush administration riding off this big mid-term victory, he's going to have a lot of political clout; and if he decides he wants an amnesty or huge guest-worker program, it's going to be a very interesting and tough-fought battle for those against it --
Denson: I agree with you, Dave, but I think this is also a vote by the American public in favor of security. And I think that's going to resonate with some of the Republicans and the leadership.
Stein: I hope they get that message too.