logo
March 26, 2008

Illegal Immigrants Help Social Security?

"Last year the [Social Security] trustees estimated that Social Security had an overall 75-year deficit of 1.95% of taxable payroll. This year it's 1.70%. That's a pretty substantial improvement. What caused it?... Table IV.B9 has only one significant change from 2007: 'Methods and programmatic data.' And what might that entail?... immigrants. To be specific, better estimates of the taxes and benefits received by illegal immigrants -- or, as the trustees refer to them,'other-immigrants'," says Kevin Drum in the Washington Monthly. "Give or take a bit, it turns out that this shores up the Social Security system to the tune of around $13 billion per year. Thanks, illegal immigrants!" Interesting commentary at Brad DeLong's site about the story, including the societal cost accounting for population growth via immigration vs. actuarial accounting in Social Security. Also see comments at Economist's View.

The unspoken premise behind Drum's position is that Social Security would be bankrupt without illegal immigrants. Is it really the case that Social Security will be bankrupt in 2017? In a related post, Dean Baker at The American Prospect goes after the Washington Post for making that same assumption.

"However, it is another step altogether to deliberately misrepresent the state of the program to advance its agenda. This is what columnist Allan Sloan has sought to do today in arguing that the Social Security trust fund does not exist and therefore the program will face problems in 2017 when the trustees project that it will first have to rely on interest from the trust fund to pay benefits . . . Of course, if there were enough people like Mr. Sloan, Congress could vote to change the law and effectively default on the bonds held by the trust fund. (This doesn't seem likely, since the percentage of voters who are receiving Social Security will soar in the next decade.)"

Thumbnail: A Ponzi Problem

A Ponzi Problem: The U.S. Dependency Ratio, Social Security Solvency and the False Panacea of Immigration (2000)
The report rebuts the idea that increasing immigration will assure the solvency of the Social Security Trust Fund. Read the full report. (PDF)

Read the full story

Comments

As most illegals don't pay taxes why should we think that they will help the SS mess. Additionally, bush wants to give the illegals full Social Security after 18 months, while Americans must work for years to qualify.

Posted by: jmac on March 26, 2008 02:38 PM

A few years ago, I looked at the SS payouts for a year (available on the SS website) versus the money in the Suspense Fund. The latter is the accumulation of literally decades. At that time, the money in the Suspense would have covered maybe six months worths of obligations.

Illegal aliens are not ADDING TO SS, but simply replacing AMERICANS in doing so. Bear in mind, too, that AMERICANS would probably have higher wages and therefore pay more into the system than illegal aliens.

Posted by: Ali on March 26, 2008 02:42 PM

Let's see now. According to the SS website, OASI expenditures in 2008 will amount to roughly $516 billion. So, the contribution by "immigrants" is less than percent. I'm also guessing that the model doesn't account for the fact that illegal aliens in displacing Americans drive wages and hence SS contributions down.

Posted by: Ali on March 26, 2008 02:57 PM

Illegal Immigrants Helping Social Security? Really!!

Did you know Hillary Clinton was under sniper fire when landing in Bosnia 12 years ago! Really!!!

Posted by: peter on March 26, 2008 03:52 PM

What a JOKE, JOKE, JOKE, JOKE, JOKE........ These people use resources and services for their extended families numbering into the hundreds, that it will be ancient American citizens on crutches, or in wheel chairs who will be working to support them.

Posted by: Bobby on March 26, 2008 05:04 PM

THE WAY TO FIX SOCIAL SECURITY

Take the income limit totally off of it and make it the rich elite's 401K too.

Believe me, they'll be totally horrified and do something when foreign mooches are sucking their pensions try too.

Posted by: Softwarengineer on March 26, 2008 05:49 PM

The Social Security problem is a fiscal problem that we came by legally. The immigration problem is congress' lack of respect for United States law. Apples and oranges.

Posted by: Rome, Georgia on March 26, 2008 10:31 PM

its true they help themselves

Posted by: impeachbush on March 26, 2008 11:02 PM

Bravo softwarengineer! I think you've found the answer! All the elites and politicians need to pay too. Remember equality? Foreign billionaire Real Estate investors never pay and make jokes about how the tax system is written for workers; while the system is designed for the investors who control the money ! V

Posted by: Vickie on March 26, 2008 11:45 PM

The American people are sick and tired of the abuse to American citizens through identity theft and Social Security card theft by (mostly Mexican) invaders who assume they have the right to destroy the future job and credit history of our citizens, especially the young who will not know of this fraud until they turn 18 and apply for a job or credit!

This fact just doesn't matter to the pro-amnesty, open borders nut cases.

Everyone should order their childs Social Security statement NOW and do it regularly!

Posted by: DinTN on March 29, 2008 03:50 PM

Post a comment

Comments are held for approval before being posted. If you don't see your comment immediately, you don't need to repost it. It will appear on the site once we've had a chance to review it. Entries older than 7 days will be closed for comments.




Remember Me?